Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Crazy? Yep!

You in?

Since 10% of the world’s population is already on Facebook, saying that Facebook is going public is a little like saying Charlie Sheen is going crazy.

But from a business perspective, it’s true (the Facebook part, that is — Sheen’s nuttiness, like Sheen himself, is irrelevant).

Facebook filed paperwork last week for an upcoming IPO. Analysts are predicting the largest tech-sector public offering of all time, maybe even the largest-ever stock launch, period.

We shall see. But what we’ve learned so far, from Facebook’s SEC filings, is in turn instructive, intriguing and even a little bewildering.

The facts: Facebook valuates itself at between $75 and $100 billion. They’re seeking a $5 billion cash infusion, with which they plan a series of strategic acquisitions. And current holders of Facebook stock options, including secretaries, custodians and the graffiti artist who painted their lobby, are about to become millionaires.

But that’s where things get weird.

Facebook stock options have always been a valuable recruiting tool, enticing the industry’s best programmers, designers and engineers. Facebook stock has long been privately traded, so the options have been paying off nicely until now.

But future options, after the IPO, will be seriously devalued, which will in turn hobble Facebook’s ability to bring in new talent. Is Facebook really risking that to raise just five percent of their (assumed) total net worth?

Doubtful. Especially considering that their revenue has grown by double digits every year of their existence. Last year it was a jaw-dropping 84%. This company is not cash-poor.

Something else is going on here, and we will delight in digging deep and discerning what it is. We’ll do so respectfully of course, because we know Mr. Zuckerberg is even now reading these words (Hi, Mark!).

The C4:
  1. Facebook, a social media and advertising powerhouse unlike anything ever seen, has filed paperwork for a $5 billion IPO.
  2. A successful stock launch will enrich hundreds of Facebook employees who have benefited from deferred options.
  3. Future stock options may be diluted due to the millions of new shares about to be issued. This will surely impact Facebook's ability to attract new talent.
  4. We're puzzled and intrigued, and watching closely to see who gets egg on their Facebook.