America Celebrates A Birthday

Half empty or half full?

There’s much to fret over, if you’re the fretting type. Unemployment is stuck above 8%. The economy is shaky and vulnerable to ominous developments in Europe. Politically, the country has never been more divided. The recent Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act enraged half the country, gave cause to gloat to the other half, and gave unity and closure to no one.

But if perchance you’re not the fretting type, if you prefer to see our collective glass halfway full, then there’s encouragement for you, too.

The economy is showing unmistakable signs of improvement. Housing prices are up all across the country, which is bound to boost other sectors. Eurozone leaders have just reached an agreement to protect their banks (without the growth-killing austerity that earlier agreements called for), so it looks like the worst-case European scenarios are averted.

Oh, and that Supreme Court decision? There’s cause to celebrate there, too — regardless of how you feel about the ACA.

How awesome is it that We the People willingly give final say to, and accept the judgment of, a branch of government to which we’ve granted no enforcement or budgetary powers?

On July 4, 1776, our nation broke with the ancient tradition of might makes right, of taxation without representation. Twelve years later we enshrined a radical and untested form of government: representative democracy and the rule of law.

Two hundred and twenty-four years after that, it’s still working. Not only that, it’s brought us unprecedented prosperity and has made us a model for the world.

So is the glass half empty or half full? Is our country on the right track or hopelessly off the rails? Come July 5, we say go back to being as pessimistic as you like.

But on July 4, please join us in celebrating all that’s good, hopeful, and transformative about the USA. Happy birthday, America, from all of us at Caler&Company.

The C4:

1. If you choose to see the negative, there’s lots of that to see. The worldwide economy and our domestic politics are undeniably worrisome.
2. But there’s cause for optimism, isn’t there? The economy isn’t breaking any recovery speed records, but it is improving. We’ve just seen a momentous Supreme Court decision and we’re moving toward a momentous election — both are testaments to the enduring strength of our Constitution.
3. May we humbly suggest that you spend this Fourth of July setting aside pessimism, setting aside partisanship, and simply celebrating the American ideal?
4. Oh, what the heck. Why not spend ALL of July doing that?

Is the tide rising?

Housing and employment show good signs.

The downturn we call the Great Recession, which was our nation’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, began in December of 2007. The recession itself (defined as multiple consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) ended in June of 2009. However, as we’re all too well aware, the recovery has been slow, halting and uneven.

At last, we’re glimpsing an end to that. If the collapse of the housing industry was what presaged the downturn — and it was — then a housing recovery means good news for us all.

We now know that the rate of foreclosures in 2011 decreased 24% as compared to 2010. The number of homeowners 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgages was down to 7.3% of all borrowers as of December 2011, versus 7.8% the previous December. And the number of U.S. metro areas showing measurable improvements in their housing markets increased to 98, as of the first of this month.

Do we still have further to go, and are there dangers still ahead? Yes and yes. But don’t let that keep us from indulging in a bit of optimism.

The Dow is up and unemployment is down. The housing industry is on its way back. The tide is rising and all boats are being lifted. Let’s enjoy it, celebrate it, and then let’s roll up our sleeves and get back to work.

The C4:

1. The Great Recession (2007–2009) was triggered by a collapse of the housing and mortgage industries.
2. The recovery has been one of the slowest on record, with nearly 18 months (mid-2009 through 2010) of little or no improvement in housing and employment.
3. There’s ample reason for optimism. We’ve seen five consecutive months of improving employment numbers, and a steady rise of the major stock indices.
4. Within Ohio and across the nation, the housing market is recovering. Healthy housing will complete this recovery. Cheers to that!