Is the tide rising?

Housing and employment show good signs.

The downturn we call the Great Recession, which was our nation’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, began in December of 2007. The recession itself (defined as multiple consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) ended in June of 2009. However, as we’re all too well aware, the recovery has been slow, halting and uneven.

At last, we’re glimpsing an end to that. If the collapse of the housing industry was what presaged the downturn — and it was — then a housing recovery means good news for us all.

We now know that the rate of foreclosures in 2011 decreased 24% as compared to 2010. The number of homeowners 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgages was down to 7.3% of all borrowers as of December 2011, versus 7.8% the previous December. And the number of U.S. metro areas showing measurable improvements in their housing markets increased to 98, as of the first of this month.

Do we still have further to go, and are there dangers still ahead? Yes and yes. But don’t let that keep us from indulging in a bit of optimism.

The Dow is up and unemployment is down. The housing industry is on its way back. The tide is rising and all boats are being lifted. Let’s enjoy it, celebrate it, and then let’s roll up our sleeves and get back to work.

The C4:

1. The Great Recession (2007–2009) was triggered by a collapse of the housing and mortgage industries.
2. The recovery has been one of the slowest on record, with nearly 18 months (mid-2009 through 2010) of little or no improvement in housing and employment.
3. There’s ample reason for optimism. We’ve seen five consecutive months of improving employment numbers, and a steady rise of the major stock indices.
4. Within Ohio and across the nation, the housing market is recovering. Healthy housing will complete this recovery. Cheers to that!

Stand & Deliver

Are you ready to do what it takes?

These days, a company's continuing existence is testament to its adaptability. If you're still standing, that means you've rolled with every technological landslide and demographic shift that recent history has thrown at you.

Which is good, because all that has just been practice for your biggest challenge yet: The fundamental transformation of the American consumer's psyche.

The Great Recession of 2007–2009 left a more pessimistic consumer. One who's holding less debt, less purchasing power and who is far more thoughtful — maybe downright adverse — to all but the most basic purchases.

Consumers will continue to demand the utmost in service and value, while things like brand loyalty will mean less and less. Far fewer dollars will be spent, and there will be economic casualties. There will be winners too, though, consisting of those players willing to beat their competition in giving the consumer what he or she wants.

That's the line we plan on being in. Hope to see you there.

The C4:

1. If you're still standing, congrats — you're a testament to adaptability.
2. Now begins the process of changing consumers' mindsets — but it won't be easy.
3. Consumers' demands are high, but their attitudes are challenging.
4. Those who want to keep standing will give the consumer what they want.

Steady at The Helm

A tsunami in Asia can bring us to the brink of recession, and a rumor of agreement among European financiers can send our markets soaring. An odd side effect of our global interconnectedness is that so much of our economic fate seems beyond our control.

Maybe so. But that's no excuse for us, as businesspeople, to take our hands from the tiller. Fair winds or foul may blow from beyond our horizons, yet we remain captains of our own ships.

Or how about a landlubber's metaphor: go ahead and see the forest for the trees, but remember the trees still matter. Tend to your basics: take care of your customers; buy low and sell high.

Global markets will bring the unexpected. Temper that by controlling what you can, and by always applying your best business practices.

Distant gales might still rock your boat, but you'll be better prepared than most to ride them out.