The Death of Brands?

Not if branders really get (and give) the value of their value.

A recent Time Magazine story entitled Brand Names Just Don't Mean As Much Anymore posited that belt-tightening in the wake of the Great Recession has brought on the slow, steady decline of brand-name goods. The story cites the no-name or generic items that sit next to the similar (sometimes identical) brand-name equivalents on grocery store and drugstore shelves.

Consumers have long known that generics compare well to the brands in quality, and purely outshine them in price. It seems that in this "new normal" of everyday cost-consciousness (where 93% of shoppers report changes in buying habits due to the economy), consumers are now choosing generics with increasing regularity.

So should the brand names be panicking? Well, not exactly — especially since many of the brand-name producers also supply the generic or store-brand goods. This trend might be cutting into profits, but it isn't yet erasing them.

But consumer goods suppliers, and indeed brand managers everywhere, should definitely be paying attention. What we're seeing here is a shift in the consumer mindset, and a forecast into their brand-loyalty — or the lack of it — for generations to come.

Because brand loyalty hasn't died, it's just stopped being blind. Consumers really do want to embrace familiar brands, instead of scrambling for bargains each week. Consumers are happy to support companies, products, and yes, brands they believe in...providing they see those things as worthy of their support.

And what makes them worthy? Is it price? Not exactly.

It's value.

Don't make the mistake of conflating price with value. Price is an element of value, but it's not the entirety. Value is a complicated algorithm that's computed unconsciously in the consumer's head. It integrates variables like quality, availability, and even brand equity, to arrive at a value-based buying decision. And clearly, if two side-by-side products are identical in every way except price, that lower price tips the scales of value.

So brand managers, what can you do if you can't compete on price? Compete on value — make a better product, market it better, service it better, and build a quality-centric brand to stand behind it.

The best part of this formula for success is that it doesn't just apply to the consumer goods that Time was speaking of. If you've got a brand, no matter your business, focus on value and you can't go wrong.

The C4:

1. Time Magazine just reported that due to shifts in buying habits, brand-name consumer goods are losing market share to their generic, no-name, or store-brand equivalents. We like Time's reporting, but this particular revelation surprised exactly no one. 
2. Economies can change rapidly, but buying habits, not so much. Consumers are now in the habit of seeking out the best values, brand loyalty be damned. This is the new normal, and marketers need to get used to it.
3. It's not (necessarily) a matter of price. It's value. It's bang for the buck. If a no-name brand compares well in quality but is 20% cheaper, most consumers won't agonize over the decision very long before putting that no-name in their shopping cart. 
4. Marketers take heed. No matter what you're selling, you'd better be selling it with value. If you can't compete on price then you have to be offering something else, something of value, that the cut-rate brands just can't provide. This is an axiom we all should have been living by all along, but now it's a matter of success or failure.

The Glitter That Makes Markets Jitter

Where’s the silver lining?

“Gold is a hedge against inflation.” 

That’s such a long-accepted trope you probably don’t remember where you first heard it. Historically, it’s usually been true. The price of gold rises and falls like anything else, but it normally stays fairly closely pegged to the inflation rate. One way to think of it is this: an ounce of gold has always been enough to buy a decent suit of clothes, whether in 1849 when gold was going for $20, or in 2000 when it was up to $300.

But a not-so-funny thing has happened since the 2007 financial crisis — the price of gold itself has become inflated, maybe even hyper-inflated, shooting up to an all-time high last year of nearly $2,000 an ounce.

That’s a pretty nice suit.

So, what was going on there? Was it a bubble fueled by panicky investors here in the U.S.? Talk radio and investing forums were thick with gold hype during the worst of those years. Gold brokers were springing up everywhere, selling dubious gold certificates and engaging in the even more dubious practice of buying gold by mail. This all doubtlessly played a part.

But what played an even bigger role was the chugging engines of Asian economies. China and India, especially, weathered well that financial storm. They had fresh dollars to invest, but Western markets weren’t exactly attractive opportunities. So they invested in what conventional wisdom said was a dependable hedge against inflation. For almost five years Chinese and Indian purchases accounted for more than half the gold consumption in the world.

In the last 12 months things have begun to change. The Chinese and Indian economies have slowed, and with them their purchases of gold. Since September 2011, the price of gold has fallen more than 17% to a still-inflated but somewhat more sane $1,600 per ounce.

Will the slide continue? Or is this an example of a market correcting itself? Time will tell. If anything it’s an abject lesson — perhaps a painful one — for investors. Beware bubbles. Beware hype. And if you’re hedging against inflation, don’t buy in at inflated prices.

The C4:

1. Since the start of the 2007 financial crisis, we’ve seen some disturbing fluctuations in the price of gold; it shot up to an all-time high last year, reaching about $1,900 per ounce. Now it’s begun one of its steepest ever declines, dropping 17% in 11 months.
2. Looking back, there was clearly some gold fever here at home. Conspiracy theorists advocated hoarding while fast talkers were begging us to sell them grandma’s jewelry. That was the start of the bubble.
3. Asia is where the bubble blew up. India and China were just as hungry for gold, and they could afford much more. They started buying more than half of all gold on the market…until their economies started to slow. Which brings us to today.
4. Is gold still a hedge against inflation? History, as they say, is no guarantee of future performance. The price of gold will probably stabilize and it might even become a decent hedge again. But investors would be wise to remember: gold is a commodity, as susceptible as any to inflation and deflation. Markets have behaved irrationally when it comes to gold, and there’s no reason that won’t happen again.

America Celebrates A Birthday

Half empty or half full?

There’s much to fret over, if you’re the fretting type. Unemployment is stuck above 8%. The economy is shaky and vulnerable to ominous developments in Europe. Politically, the country has never been more divided. The recent Supreme Court decision upholding the Affordable Care Act enraged half the country, gave cause to gloat to the other half, and gave unity and closure to no one.

But if perchance you’re not the fretting type, if you prefer to see our collective glass halfway full, then there’s encouragement for you, too.

The economy is showing unmistakable signs of improvement. Housing prices are up all across the country, which is bound to boost other sectors. Eurozone leaders have just reached an agreement to protect their banks (without the growth-killing austerity that earlier agreements called for), so it looks like the worst-case European scenarios are averted.

Oh, and that Supreme Court decision? There’s cause to celebrate there, too — regardless of how you feel about the ACA.

How awesome is it that We the People willingly give final say to, and accept the judgment of, a branch of government to which we’ve granted no enforcement or budgetary powers?

On July 4, 1776, our nation broke with the ancient tradition of might makes right, of taxation without representation. Twelve years later we enshrined a radical and untested form of government: representative democracy and the rule of law.

Two hundred and twenty-four years after that, it’s still working. Not only that, it’s brought us unprecedented prosperity and has made us a model for the world.

So is the glass half empty or half full? Is our country on the right track or hopelessly off the rails? Come July 5, we say go back to being as pessimistic as you like.

But on July 4, please join us in celebrating all that’s good, hopeful, and transformative about the USA. Happy birthday, America, from all of us at Caler&Company.

The C4:

1. If you choose to see the negative, there’s lots of that to see. The worldwide economy and our domestic politics are undeniably worrisome.
2. But there’s cause for optimism, isn’t there? The economy isn’t breaking any recovery speed records, but it is improving. We’ve just seen a momentous Supreme Court decision and we’re moving toward a momentous election — both are testaments to the enduring strength of our Constitution.
3. May we humbly suggest that you spend this Fourth of July setting aside pessimism, setting aside partisanship, and simply celebrating the American ideal?
4. Oh, what the heck. Why not spend ALL of July doing that?

Beware of Greeks Bearing Debt

A symptom of a flawed attempt to unify.

Casual investors, beware: your world has been turned upside-down.

Stocks have become the relatively safe parts of your portfolio. Bonds, which used to be your hedges of first resort, have changed entirely.

Top-rated bonds are all but useless for growth, and will pay practically zero interest for the foreseeable future. Sovereign-debt bonds, a sterling investment just a few years ago, are now almost too risky to contemplate.

What’s changed? It’s easy to oversimplify, but we’ll forge ahead: Greece. Greece has changed everything.

We’re not blaming that incubator of modern democracy, only pointing to it as a symptom. Greece is demonstrating all the perils of the Eurozone, an unprecedented experiment in a multinational currency. Greece is showing how difficult it is for 17 nations to share monetary policy while maintaining economic independence.

There are no easy choices for the Greeks. If they stay in the Eurozone, they embrace another generation of fiscal austerity — strangling any chance of economic growth. If they revert to the drachma they’ll almost certainly default on their national debt.

You say you own no Greek debt? Hold tight anyway. A Greek default, managed in the best possible fashion, will only encourage other teetering European economies to follow suit. Spain, Portugal, Italy, maybe even France, are all at high risk. This scenario, which is unfortunately one of the better possible ones and probably the most likely, means the bottom is going to fall out of the sovereign-bond market.

Forewarned is fore-armed. Think seriously about adjusting your portfolio accordingly. And spare the kindest possible thoughts for our friends and allies across the pond, who are guilty of nothing except a flawed attempt to unite their continent.

The C4:

1. The Greek debt crisis is demonstrating the vulnerabilities of the Eurozone, and pointing to a grim future of cascading defaults.
2. That likely result, coupled with already historically low interest rates on “safe” bonds, means we can no longer rely on the bond market as our hedge against other investment losses.
3. Casual investors (all investors, in fact) need to rethink their strategy. This is a slow-motion crisis that’s giving us time to adjust. Use it or wallow in regret.
4. But don’t blame the Greeks, nor the rest of the Eurozone. They tried. Economic unification is simply an idea ahead of its time.

Is Lehman's off the ropes?

Will the Wall Street cornerstone climb back in the ring?

Looking back, the financial collapse of 2008 seemed to move like a glacier: slowly, inexorably, unstoppably. But in the midst of that slow-mo meltdown, a few memorable events struck with tectonic suddenness, altering forever our financial landscape and leaving us to wonder if there could ever be a recovery from such unprecedented economic shock.

The worst, by far, had to be the September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, a 161-year-old cornerstone of Wall Street investment banking. Like so many bank failures of the time, this one was fueled by twin mistakes: an over-investment in mortgage-backed securities, and an inadequate supply of capital to cover the bets that were destined to go sour. The only unique part of Lehman’s story was the scale: they went down holding nearly $1 trillion in debt, resulting in the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history.

Knowing that, what do you say when Lehman’s emerges from Chapter 11 a mere three and a half years later? “Miraculous,” is what the bankruptcy judge said, and he’s right.

Despite its bankruptcy, Lehman’s was always flush with assets. Their real-estate holdings include some of the world’s most profitable hotels and office space. They’ve got tens of billions in private-equity investments and corporate bonds. They even own a sizable stake of Formula One Racing.

The management of Lehman Brothers has spent the last three years creating a liquidation plan, to turn those assets into a payday for Lehman creditors. The first checks are scheduled to go out in April, and are expected to total about $65 billion, or 17 cents on the dollar.

Not a great return, but certainly better than nothing, and probably much better than most creditors expected. 

So which part is miraculous — that Lehman’s has emerged from bankruptcy, or that they seem to be doing all they can to make things right? Either way it’s a sight to behold, and it’s nice to believe in miracles again.

The C4:

1. Lehman Brothers filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on September 15, 2008. It was the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history and one of the defining events of the Great Recession. 
2. Lehman’s is unwinding over $600 billion worth of debt by liquidating approximately $65 billion in assets.
3. After just three and a half years in bankruptcy, Lehman’s is emerging in March 2012 and beginning to repay creditors in April.
4. A concerted effort to do what’s right goes a long way toward fixing past mistakes.

Is the tide rising?

Housing and employment show good signs.

The downturn we call the Great Recession, which was our nation’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, began in December of 2007. The recession itself (defined as multiple consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth) ended in June of 2009. However, as we’re all too well aware, the recovery has been slow, halting and uneven.

At last, we’re glimpsing an end to that. If the collapse of the housing industry was what presaged the downturn — and it was — then a housing recovery means good news for us all.

We now know that the rate of foreclosures in 2011 decreased 24% as compared to 2010. The number of homeowners 90 days or more delinquent on their mortgages was down to 7.3% of all borrowers as of December 2011, versus 7.8% the previous December. And the number of U.S. metro areas showing measurable improvements in their housing markets increased to 98, as of the first of this month.

Do we still have further to go, and are there dangers still ahead? Yes and yes. But don’t let that keep us from indulging in a bit of optimism.

The Dow is up and unemployment is down. The housing industry is on its way back. The tide is rising and all boats are being lifted. Let’s enjoy it, celebrate it, and then let’s roll up our sleeves and get back to work.

The C4:

1. The Great Recession (2007–2009) was triggered by a collapse of the housing and mortgage industries.
2. The recovery has been one of the slowest on record, with nearly 18 months (mid-2009 through 2010) of little or no improvement in housing and employment.
3. There’s ample reason for optimism. We’ve seen five consecutive months of improving employment numbers, and a steady rise of the major stock indices.
4. Within Ohio and across the nation, the housing market is recovering. Healthy housing will complete this recovery. Cheers to that!

Stand & Deliver

Are you ready to do what it takes?

These days, a company's continuing existence is testament to its adaptability. If you're still standing, that means you've rolled with every technological landslide and demographic shift that recent history has thrown at you.

Which is good, because all that has just been practice for your biggest challenge yet: The fundamental transformation of the American consumer's psyche.

The Great Recession of 2007–2009 left a more pessimistic consumer. One who's holding less debt, less purchasing power and who is far more thoughtful — maybe downright adverse — to all but the most basic purchases.

Consumers will continue to demand the utmost in service and value, while things like brand loyalty will mean less and less. Far fewer dollars will be spent, and there will be economic casualties. There will be winners too, though, consisting of those players willing to beat their competition in giving the consumer what he or she wants.

That's the line we plan on being in. Hope to see you there.

The C4:

1. If you're still standing, congrats — you're a testament to adaptability.
2. Now begins the process of changing consumers' mindsets — but it won't be easy.
3. Consumers' demands are high, but their attitudes are challenging.
4. Those who want to keep standing will give the consumer what they want.

Steady at The Helm

A tsunami in Asia can bring us to the brink of recession, and a rumor of agreement among European financiers can send our markets soaring. An odd side effect of our global interconnectedness is that so much of our economic fate seems beyond our control.

Maybe so. But that's no excuse for us, as businesspeople, to take our hands from the tiller. Fair winds or foul may blow from beyond our horizons, yet we remain captains of our own ships.

Or how about a landlubber's metaphor: go ahead and see the forest for the trees, but remember the trees still matter. Tend to your basics: take care of your customers; buy low and sell high.

Global markets will bring the unexpected. Temper that by controlling what you can, and by always applying your best business practices.

Distant gales might still rock your boat, but you'll be better prepared than most to ride them out.

After the Cranberry Sauce

Later this week we will partake in two thoroughly American traditions.

The first is a celebration of family and thankfulness; the second is of commerce, consumerism and, just maybe, economic salvation.

Black Friday is the bellwether for the entire Holiday retail season, when sellers will begin securing their year's profits, or reconciling their losses. Black Friday will be their first indication of which way our economic winds are blowing.

Unfortunately, it's also turned into a strange and self-destructive competition among retailers; with earlier and earlier openings, longer hours and ridiculously under-priced loss leaders.

Hints of backlash, even resistance, are starting to appear. Hopefully that means that all of us, retailers and consumers alike, are beginning to regain our Black Friday sanity.

And hopefully we can spend a bit more time on Thursday being thankful for all our blessings, including economic recovery, and a more prosperous, less hectic, Holiday season for all.